As town and city centres prepare to reopen and public opinion is presented as being increasingly divided, we look at what the national data tells us about the challenges of balancing health and wealth on the high street.
Rising economic concerns
Economic concerns are, not surprisingly, creeping up the national consciousness. According to a YouGov poll from May 30th, 2020, Britons are now almost as likely to say that ‘the economy’ is one of the top three issues facing the country (61%) as they are to say ‘health’ (66%). Concern about health peaked at 74-75% between 21 March and 20 April.
Heightened high street impacts
There is no denying that the high street businesses of our town and city centres have been disproportionally impacted by COVID-19. There is a growing urgency to balance health and wealth on the high street. The most recent ONS survey findings on the economic impacts of COVID-19 show that the largest percentages of furloughed staff are employed by the arts, entertainment and recreation, and the accommodation and food service sectors, at 73% and 83% respectively. Similarly, the latest ONS survey of retail sales demonstrates that turnover is dramatically down across all non-food retail, with textile, clothing and footwear stores showing a universal decline.
Reluctant customer sentiments
Polling data indicates that it is unlikely to simply be a case of re-open and the customers will flock back to high street businesses. Surveys by YouGov conducted on April 20th/21st on probable consumer responses post COVID-19 lockdown, indicated that the public are concerned about visiting businesses where they would be in closer contact with others. For example, just 32% said they would feel comfortable going back to pubs and bars, and only 37% would be relaxed using restaurants. For clothing stores the figures rise to 48% saying they would feel comfortable returning.
Wariness of public spaces
Despite press stories of crowded honeypot sites, polls suggest the majority of the public remain wary of visiting public places. The YouGov behavioural change tracker showed the percentage of people changing behaviour to avoid crowded public spaces remains high and was 72% on May 30th compared to 80% at its peak in late March/early April. The challenge to balancing health and wealth on the high street comes from both perspectives.
Different reactions to lockdown
Research from Kings College identifies three groups reacting to life under lockdown in very different ways. This is a useful prompt for planning for different types of town centre user although the percentages may vary as lockdown eases. The three groups are defined as:
- the accepting (48%) -87% say they’re following lockdown rules completely or nearly all the time.
- the suffering (44%) -93% report feeling more anxious and depressed during lockdown
- the resisting (9%) -58% think “too much fuss is being made about the risk of coronavirus”
The resisting group is most likely to experience significant personal financial impact from the crisis (65%), which may partly explain their attitude.
Age and gender distinctions
There is a noticeable age and gender divide in people’s reactions to returning to businesses. According to YouGov’s late April poll on consumer responses, 64% of 18 to 24-year olds say they would feel comfortable returning to clothing stores, compared to just 46% of those aged from 50 to 64, for example. Similarly, women feel less comfortable returning to town centres than men including, for example, they are less willing to visit bars and restaurants (67% vs 52% of men).
Consistent messages and trust
In some senses the messaging going into lockdown was much more clear-cut than the nuanced persuasion necessary during a phased reopening of town and city centres. Applying advice on using social and behavioural science to support COVID-19 pandemic response, the inference is that place managers will have to be much more subtle and sophisticated post-lockdown.
A key part of the post-lockdown approach will be a need to apply consistent, town-wide messaging so that customers are confident of a new, collective attitude reinforced by clear on-street guidance and interactions with businesses. Persuasive messaging should (i) emphasise benefits to the recipient, (ii) focus on protecting others, (iii) align with the recipient’s moral values, (iv) appeal to social consensus or scientific norms and/ or (v) highlight the prospect of social group approval.
Well-managed streets and public spaces
In working together to provide safe and welcoming town centres; councils, place managers and business groups will need to enable socially-distanced movement from home to shop counter. As our checklist for managing town centre streets and public spaces shows, this begins with agreeing a town-wide approach balancing the needs of residents, visitors and businesses. Promotional work and practical improvements such as temporarily widening footways, reducing speed limits or creating pop-up cycle-ways, will be important parts of locally-determined solutions backed by Government support including from the reopening high streets safely fund.
Consensus or polarisation beyond COVID-19
Behavioural scientists suggest that, whilst a crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic can lead to a greater consensus in public opinion, it can also polarise views. At a local level, PWC’s consumer sentiment survey indicates an appetite for balancing on-line and on-street with projected behavioural change including 18% of shoppers thinking they will buy more online after the lockdown and 22% preferring to spend more on local high streets in future. A YouGov survey of projected consumer responses post-lockdown indicates the hospitality industry may find some comfort in the fact that 29% of the public plan to spend more than they did previously on domestic holidays, while only 10% intend to spend less. Looking at the big picture, polling by Ipsos shows that Briton’s are split about the balance between the economy and the environment post-COVID 19. The findings show 46% believe the government should take actions which might harm the environment to help the economy recover post-COVID 19, whilst 43% disagree.
Acceptance, learning and adaptation
Balancing health and wealth on the high street throughout summer 2020 is going to be challenging. We will be dependent on national knowledge of infection rates and faith in the Government roadmap to ease the lockdown. By working together, councils, place managers and business groups will add to this by understanding and adapting to local circumstances. Everyone -including individual businesses and customers- is learning. We need to be accepting of this and adapting in our responses. Confidence can be rebuilt in those town and city centres that plan ahead to put consistent town-wide messaging and practical measures in place. Safe and welcoming places are also likely to become the most prosperous too.
More information and guidance
You can download a copy of the more detailed report Balancing health & wealth on our High Streets that includes further sources of data, sample charts and links to original sources.
Our methodology for looking beyond the COVID-19 crisis, is provided in the updated Local Government Association (LGA) Revitalising Town Centres Toolkit and accompanying checklist for creating town centre recovery plans .
A free, downloadable checklist for managing town centre streets and public spaces in 2020 and access to further up-to-date, detailed guidance is available via our dedicated beyond COVID-19 web page.
